Russians are ready to face "unbearable losses in the medium and long term"

Russia, which has dominated the fighting for more than 18 months, will soon face a complex military situation.

In a recent note, the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that "Russia will likely face several material, human, and economic constraints in the next 12 to 18 months", changes that would contribute to a rebalancing of power.

For several months now, the Russian armed forces have been tasked with wearing down the opposing camp and in the process are weakening their own men. "If the rate of Russian forces' losses in Ukraine continues at the current pace, the Kremlin's ability to maintain its war effort will be under pressure in the medium and long term," estimates the ISW. This applies as much to their use of artillery systems, armoured vehicles, tanks, and ammunition as to the mobilisation of personnel and workforce.

2026 looks bleak

In 2026, Moscow could be confronted with "unbearable losses in the medium and long term" of armoured vehicles and tanks, the think tank stresses. According to data provided by the platform Oryx, which records the losses of both sides based on visual evidence, Moscow has lost at least 11,908 armoured vehicles since February 24, 2022, including 3,773 tanks, reports Le Figaro. The Ukrainian general staff, meanwhile, claims to have damaged or destroyed 3,689 tanks, 8,956 armoured vehicles, and 13,050 artillery systems in 2024.

The ISW warns: "The Russian defence industrial base cannot produce new armoured vehicles and artillery systems at a rate that can compensate for current losses."

(MH with Manon Pierre: Le Figaro - Illustration: ©Unsplash)