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Risk of ‘Big One’ devastating California by 2032 surges dramatically

byQG
|
05 Jun 2025 13h30
San Francisco's downhill winding street
© Unsplash

Some experts now agree that the likelihood of the long-feared “Big One” striking has significantly increased between now and 2032.

Sarah Minson, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), warned that the probability of a major earthquake hitting San Francisco by 2055 has surged to 72%.

She added that one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 6.7 are more than likely to occur in Northern California within the next 30 years.

Scientists remain particularly concerned about the San Andreas Fault, a massive fault line stretching over 1,200 km (750 miles), which could generate a “Big One” with a magnitude of at least 7.8.

While the USGS stresses that Californians still have time to prepare, the agency maintains that a major earthquake is likely to occur within the next seven years.

“The threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032,” the agency wrote in a report.

The last time an earthquake over magnitude 6.7 struck the region was in 1989, during the Loma Prieta quake, which killed 63 people and caused an estimated $10 billion in damage.

California frequently experiences minor earthquakes, typically below magnitude 3, which are generally not felt by residents.

(QG - Source: The Daily Mail  — Picture : © Unsplash)