"Summer 2025, the onset of problems in Russia"

While the Russian president didn't attend peace talks in Turkey, some observers believe he has no intention of ending the war, far from it.

According to analysts, Vladimir Putin is supposedly preparing to launch "a major offensive during the summer" with the aim of invading territories he was meant to relinquish during negotiations in Istanbul.

On 13 May, the Kremlin chief, quoted by Russian media Pravda, announced triumphantly that his army was recruiting 50,000 men per month, "twice as fast as in Ukraine". The goal? To suffocate the Ukrainian armed forces and seize territories in Donetsk, the Donbass, or even Louhansk. "Politically, we [Russia] are open to dialogue, but on the ground, we continue the offensive. And no one will stop the military operations for a long time... A summer offensive awaits us," stated Russian military blogger Vladimir Romanov.

For Moscow, "the well is dry"

An offensive to which the Ukrainians are actively preparing. "Putin has chosen war and refuses to end it in the name of a summer offensive," posted Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, member of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, on Telegram on 11 May. The executive director of the Ukrainian Centre for Security and Cooperation, Dmytro Zhmaylo, added: "Summer 2025 will mark the beginning of problems [in Russia] that will only worsen by the year's end. That's why Russia wants to conduct its summer offensive. The well is dry. They want to exploit their numerical superiority to conquer new positions or make a breakthrough."

(MH with Manon Pierre - Source: L’Indépendant - Illustration: ©Unsplash)