War in Ukraine: When is Russia expected to complete its conquest

Despite significant losses (36,000 soldiers in April), the Russian army continues its conquest of Ukraine. This is a war which, if advances continue at this pace, could last for a very long time. 

According to information from Forbes, Moscow captured only 170km2 in April 2025. Currently, Russian forces occupy 19% of Ukrainian territory, which is 587,000 square kilometres. If the Kremlin's army advances at last month's pace, it will be 2256 before Moscow has conquered all of Ukraine. By then, the conflict would have cost the lives of 101 million Russian soldiers. It's worth noting that Russia's current population is estimated at around 144 million people.

Record recruitment 

These estimates do not prevent the Russians from continuing their invasion and recruiting 30,000 fighters each month. According to General Christopher Cavoli, commander of United States Army forces in Europe, Russian forces in Ukraine continue to grow. There are 600,000 soldiers deployed, which is "the highest level since the start of the war and nearly double the size of the initial invasion force in February 2022".

The deputy director of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Janis Kluge, states that this record recruitment is "driven by high signing bonuses and speculation about the impending end of the war". 

(MH with Manon Pierre - Source: Midi Libre - Illustration: ©Unsplash)